Earnings Season

Updated: Feb 25, 2021

In the next month, Fiducia subscribers & members alike will understand why I follow so few names. It is called earnings season. This is when businesses report their earnings for the 90 day period (in a quarter) and Wall Street judges them ha ha. No, I will not sell a name after a bad quarter, it happens and imagine selling Amazon or Microsoft in 2005 because they "had a bad quarter". I am not comparing my businesses to either of those, but you get my point. Overtime, I value a business based on beating and guiding higher so when I first start looking at a report, I check guidance to see if they beat and raised. I then read the press release to see some quick commentary provided by management, whether it is guidance, addressable market thoughts and where we are headed, or favorable/unfavorable business environment talk. Now, we have three out of my four businesses reporting in a single day. February 11th is Zebra before market open, and BlackLine and Cloudflare after market. It is going to be a very busy and hectic reading. I want to layout what Wall Street analysts have forecasted for this quarter, then next to their forecasts I will post what I have for my numbers:



Cloudflare:

  • Revenue: $118.27m

  • Adjusted EPS -.03

  • GUIDANCE: $126.6m for next Q, I would like to see upwards of $132m..

  • Fiducia Numbers: Revenue of $125.89m (50% YoY Growth), 77.32% Margins, EPS around $-.02 (EPS is not as relevant for me on this name right now, but obviously would like to see some sort of surprises here. Will be focus on DBNE as well.


BlackLine:


This one is a bit more tricky, due to their acquisition of Rimilia and COVID headwinds that dampened cash flow and top line growth last year, but that is why we own it as a comeback in growth.


  • Revenue: $91.6m

  • Adjusted EPS of $.07

  • Fiducia Numbers: $93.65 representing 25% YoY growth, 79-80% Gross Margins, and $.07 in adjusted EPS. I expected guidance to be well above $97m for the next quarter and have more color on Rimilia and how they are incorporating that business into theirs.


Zebra Tech:


Zebra is another complicated business, Amazon just had a blowout quarter and talked a lot about supply chain. I think Zebra may have capitalized on this better than expected, how much is priced into the current stock? I have no idea. But I do know that Anders is always looking for opportunity.. and my numbers are actually pretty in-line with aggregated estimates so here they are:


  • Revenue: $1.25b

  • Earnings: $3.81

  • Guidance, Revenue: $1.14b on $3.17 in earnings.



I will be dropping a introduction to a new name, SharpSpring ($SHSP) soon! Super excited to follow a new name, I have added it to my other account that is not the Fiducia Fund.


I am trying to think of a new way to put the options trades up, an alert system of some sorts. Let me know what is easiest for all of you, do NOT forget, starting in March the website will be behind a paywall. All trades, research, and blog posts will be for paying members / subs. I am hoping for a smooth transition.


-Fiducia B

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