Moving Forward

I built this website to gather a group of like-minded investors, create a community of hungry wealth builders, investing in innovative companies. I also built it to share my thoughts on the markets, personal holdings (that I do not advise to buy), and what I am seeing from a global perspective. I hope my posts have given you insights on companies you may have never thought about buying, or give you a new look on the economy and global capital markets. I have learned a ton from people I have met on Cloudflare, while I am not from that sort of background, I have to understand the business and products in order to invest in it. This is just one example of building the community and following people from that industry!

Recent moves: I shaved 10% of Cloudflare position, to raise cash going into end of year. I would really like to buy more Zebra with this cash, but something funny happened Thursday, apparently the Motley Fool release it as a buy/pitch and the stock when from flat to up 7%. I still may add next week, as I have learned waiting for a pullback sometimes never happens and you were better off just gutting the buy and averaging up. I am buying these companies for 5+ years, remember that. It was painful to shave my favorite name, but that is the hardest part about portfolio management sometimes is knowing when to take some off a big winner even if you think it will be a 10x in 10 years, and add to an up comer that you think will perform well and keep that portfolio CAGR up. I am not an advisor, nor am I managing a portfolio of ETFs or Mutual Funds, I love stock picking and nothing will change that! There is something about reading about new companies, sitting down and opening that 10-k and just reading and understand a new business.

Between the transition between administrations, and erratic tweets we could see some turbulence and I would feel content with cash on the sidelines to buy any dip in my favorite names (hopefully Zebra). What we could do is deploy 50% of the cash, and then wait and deploy the other half in case the name does pullback. Being dynamic is key to great performance. I do believe this is where we start to see some hard COVID hit stocks outperform some faster growing names (ZBRA, LRCX), the faster growing names in my opinion have big multiples to grow into. I am staying long BlackLine because I think the valuation is pretty sanguine, and I expect more in reaccelerating in top line growth in 2021 and 2022 as more businesses adopt their platform and COVID hopefully dissipates into the new year, let us see how the new administration handles the virus. I am not saying I do not like the names, but I think returns have been pulled forward some bit, not business, but returns. In my experience stocks tend to over shoot and under shoot on short term basis in terms of valuations, in return creating opportunities for people like me to monitor and buy.

After you follow the market day by day, tick by tick, for so long.. You start to notice trends and patterns, how news flow affects certain industries in the market. You would think it gets easier to make money, but no, that is not the case sadly. As soon as you think you are smarter than the market, the market will slap you across the face. Let us move to some news. I think this is what is going to happen with a lot of the new "investors" in 2020 that came into this with record stimulus and Central Bank action. The next 5 years, is anyones guess.

Markets do not like uncertainty, hence the knee-jerk reaction to this kind of news. Now you have Mnuhcin coming out and saying this Markets will waiver back and forth on this uncertainty. You love to see it.

My watchlist today is on fire, it honestly does not look like the QQQ is flat (at the time of this writing) and SPX down 26bps. Incredible how certain names move despite the indexes. This is why I love stock picking. I enjoy writing these posts as well. The portfolio is hitting record highs as I write this.

I was short-term bearish last week, but this week proved me relatively wrong. I think it is because individual equity names I watch continue to move higher, where the SPX and QQQ really dont move as much. I continue to stay long, and look for opportunities. Have a great weekend!

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