Portfolio Update & Returns

Fidelity finally updated the time-weighted returns as of December 31st, 2020. I am excited, and a little worried to show them. Why would I be worried? Up big! Well, it was a very strange year filled with liquidity, a terrible pandemic, and an odd disconnect between the stock market and the economy.


You could have thrown a dart at a board filled with stocks, and I would place the odds that you would have been up on the year, maybe even outperform a few indexes as well. Yeah, people are calling it a bubble we get it. Is it a bubble though? Maybe certain areas of the market are bubbles, SPACs have been claimed to be a bubble, numerous IPOs at insane valuations are said to be a bubble, Tesla is said to be a bubble. But after reading the last few Howard Marks memos, I am not convinced the overall market is in a bubble. If we have a -20 or 30% pullback in the market in 2021, I will bet that people will say the bubble popped. Do not believe it all, please. I want to be a sound mind for investors, and traders alike. Emotions run amok in the stock market, and sometimes they need to be tamed.


Below are my returns, since April 2014. 2020 was a boost to CAGR, as well as the nominal value. I broke it down into Monthly returns as well, and you can see how much of a value add 2020 was. I fully expect lower 2021+ returns, but CAGR is CAGR.



I can no longer contribute to my Roth IRA, as I am full time with Fiducia now. Pure capital appreciation from investments is now the core strategy. I have my 7 names I like, and will continue to monitor and trim where I see fit and add to where I think CAGR can be juiced. Down below you can see how my portfolio is constructed into 2021. These values are as of January 7th, 2021.

I am confident in these names through 2021, as they produce better than expected results and guidance. I will have a report after each quarterly report on my thoughts and a summary of the call.


Each name in my portfolio has a different "theme". My friends, and colleagues know I am a very thematic investor. You will not see me spending 8 hours a day in a discounted cash flow model trying to guesstimate and tweak numbers, *cue the academics screaming at me*. Yes, I do financial DD and understand the company financial statements. From my experience, I sometimes see people spending way too much time on these and missing out on the return. People having called Apple overvalued for decades, Amazon, Netflix, Tesla, Microsoft, Nvidia, Advanced Micro, many other names. I have seen them get absolutely slaughtered trying to time valuation.


My themes of my investments summed up in a few sentences:


Cloudflare: The internet needs protected, Cloudflare is on a mission to literally help build a better internet. Helping businesses of all sizes more secure, performance, cost saving on network hardware. 16% of Fortune 1000 are paying Cloudflare. I am long, for a long time. As Matthew Prince once said #JustGettingStarted


BlackLine: There is a need for complex financial & accounting automation. Working from home, and reconciliations, Blackline smoothes the process with automation. They are a leader in financial close and accounting processes. (Boring, but I am very long!)


Lemonade: The most controversial name I own, yes, very overvalued. But. There is this thematic trend with millennials, charity giving, and social governance that I think LMND is hitting all on the head. They are killing numerous birds with one stone. Quick & Easy insurance is a trend more people my age want, price almost feels secondary and personally I do not like dealing with Insurance Agents. I believe this is a trend that will continue, and I will gladly ride the wave


Zebra Technologies: A printer company?! Boring hardware! Ha ha not so fast, this company is critical in supply chain management and warehouse automation, also, hospitals and the NFL. Read here --> https://www.fiduciainvesting.com/post/zebra-tech-room-in-a-portfolio


Home Depot: This is an obvious one, I still think the WFH trend for home additions and pro contractors will do well in 2021. Craig Menear is a fantastic CEO.


Lam Research: I get giddy about this stock, semiconductor equipment will continue to benefit heavily from 5G, Data Centers, AI/ML, etc. This is a secular tailwind I believe will continue for decades. Great financial management at the company as well, dividend, share repurchase program as well as growing their customer services segment.


Anaplan: Connected Planning should accelerate into 2021+, as businesses want to keep everything centralized and create complex models. Anaplan is the place to do it, ranging from HR to Finance.

 

I believe good things come to those who wait, we must be patience with our investments as well as our swing trades that will always be listed in the "Forum" tab under "2021 Options Trades"


You MUST become a member to access the full website, and later in the year Fiducia as a website will not be open to just the public anymore. There will be a paywall. I was told $12/month is too cheap for what has been accomplished. I want Fiducia to be a website where people go to hangout, chat in forums, and discuss opportunities that are not just my picks.


We are always learning, and always growing. The market giveth, and the market taketh. I expect slightly more volatility this year, and some good buying opportunities. I am excited for what 2021 brings.


Happy Investing

Fiducia B






181 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All