I bought $SQ at $39 and sold at $93 because of "valuation". I learned my lesson, considering they are sitting at well over $200 per share, with blowout growth. The lesson learned? Valuation can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent, or, does valuation make sense? We can sit here and discuss it all day and justify our bull and bear thesis, but obviously, the market pulled it higher.
I am not making this mistake with Cloudflare, representing 68.77% of my portfolio. This company is #justgettingstarted as Matthew Prince once tweeted. With more product announcements in December, window dressing on funds who have underperformed and want exposure to high growth names, and Cloudflare still giving out some product/subs for free for harder hit companies by COVID, I think the next few quarters should still post very solid growth to justify their valuation. I just do not think it is worth it to shave any anymore, because I shaved 10% a week and a half ago.....and shares are much higher. I cannot time the market, you cannot, no one can. This is the difficult part about portfolio management.
I feel sanguine about having cash, I nibbled on some ZBRA because I love the name. This is a strong portfolio addition. Lemonade is on fire recently. I see a lot of emotion going on in the market right now, a little greed, stocks going up 5,6,7,10% per day. No idea if it is rational, or irrational, I think the names I own will be much higher 5 years from now. With that said, I would like a pullback to deploy the cash I raised. One can only hope!.
My advice going into the weekend, read news about your names, get a sentiment read, understand the key opportunities they have and why you own them. To all the new 2020 investors this year, I would just like to say that I would not get greedy. The market giveth, and the market taketh faster than you can say bye. I have been investing for 8 years, and have studied over 100 years of financial history and enjoy learning about this stuff. Central Bank policy this year is monumental, I have been trying to understand the ramifications of this for the future. How much of these returns in these names are pulled forward? Even if the business is still on fire down the road a few years. Are the Work From Home stocks here to stay? Inflation? A sniff of rate hikes in the market, the market would drop significantly. What is the proper allocation model going forward? Are there emerging market opportunities? Do we stay in US Domestic equities?
Investing has so many questions, and few answers from what I have experienced. My edge (i feel) comes from Domestic US equities. That is where my focus lies, I do not go outside my speciality. So far, my performance proves that. November performance will be up within the first week of October.
Performance Ending as of October 2020, performance started April 30th, 2014. I want to put emphasis on my performance because I am very proud of it. Long days, reading and analyzing companies and news flow, understanding the companies and how they work, behavioral tendencies in the stock market, using technical analysis (it works sometimes). I understand why people love posting their 2020 YTD returns, because odds are they are pretty high. But I am more proud of my 6+ year CAGR of 22.83% as of October. Strategy & Discipline, and finding names with big potential. These returns are Time-Weighted-Returns (TWR)